Western mined PGMs (Pt, Pd, Rh) grew by 9 % to 8.76 Mtroz (1 troz = 31.1035 grams) in 2002. Production is expected to continue to grow, reaching 12.9 Mtroz in 2007 – 90 % of this growth will come from expansions in South Africa. Russian exports fell sharply in 2002, to 2.6 Mtroz from 5.8 Mtroz. The major fall was in palladium down 64 %, as Russia tried to balance the market.
The demand picture has been complicated in 2002 by use of stockpiles held by manufactures. PGMs used in autocatalysts fell 4 %, but net purchases fell 28 % to 5.2 Mtroz due the use of stocks and higher recycling. Platinum jewellery demand rose by 9 % on the back of continued strong growth in China. Other uses saw small increases and overall demand was down to 11.8 Mtroz.
Western demand for PGMs is expected to exceed supply by 0.5 Mtroz in 2002, all in Pt as Pd and Rh are in balance. Experts expected the overall market to be in a small surplus in the next few years (average 0.3 Mtroz p.a. or 2 % of the demand). However, in 2003/04 platinum will be in shortfall and palladium in surplus – particularly if the autocatalyst makers continue to move to using more platinum.
With a shortage of platinum in the next couple of years, experts have raised the price forecast and look for a long-term average of US$ 500/troz (with US$ 578 in 2003 and US$ 525 in 2004). Palladium is more likely to be in surplus, even with lower Russian exports, so the long-term average price forecast was reduced to US$ 300/troz. The long-term average price forecast of rhodium was reduced to US$ 750/troz.
The RECOM team wish you a “Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year”.
